Colin Kaepernick’s new contract

National Football Post has the breakdown. First of all, if we can’t include de-escalators in the next version of Madden, I will be very disappointed. But, to the point. Is this a good contract or not?

If everything works his way, he’s the second highest paid player in football by average salary. That’s a pretty sizeable chunk of change. Now, the various intricacies mean he won’t see all of that, of course, and the 49ers have done themselves a tremendous service by building the contract this way. They are protected if he falls flat on his face, and if he succeeds, then he’ll be amply compensated.

The first thing I thought of was Joe Flacco’s contract. I wasn’t the first person to think of it, but thankfully, Jamison Hensley was the first, and all he cared about was the money.

What I wanted to find out was, exactly how good are these QBs? Are they going to be worth the cash?

Here’s Joe Flacco:

Year ▴	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2008	23	BAL	QB	5	16	16	11-5-0	257	428	60.0	2971	14	3.3	12	2.8	70	6.9	6.3	11.6	185.7	80.3	32	276	5.86	5.29	7.0	1	2	11
2009	24	BAL	QB	5	16	16	9-7-0	315	499	63.1	3613	21	4.2	12	2.4	72	7.2	7.0	11.5	225.8	88.9	36	218	6.35	6.12	6.7	1	2	13
2010	25	BAL	QB	5	16	16	12-4-0	306	489	62.6	3622	25	5.1	10	2.0	67	7.4	7.5	11.8	226.4	93.6	40	294	6.29	6.39	7.6	2	4	12
2011	26	BAL	QB	5	16	16	12-4-0	312	542	57.6	3610	20	3.7	12	2.2	74	6.7	6.4	11.6	225.6	80.9	31	203	5.95	5.70	5.4	2	3	12
2012	27	BAL	QB	5	16	16	10-6-0	317	531	59.7	3817	22	4.1	10	1.9	61	7.2	7.2	12.0	238.6	87.7	35	227	6.34	6.33	6.2	4	4	12
2013	28	BAL	QB	5	16	16	8-8-0	362	614	59.0	3912	19	3.1	22	3.6	74	6.4	5.4	10.8	244.5	73.1	48	324	5.42	4.50	7.3	0	0	8
Career					96	96	62-34-0	1869	3103	60.2	21545	121	3.9	78	2.5	74	6.9	6.6	11.5	224.4	83.7	222	1542	6.02	5.69	6.7	10	15	68

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/7/2014.

And here’s Colin Kaepernick:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2011	24	SFO		7	3	0		3	5	60.0	35	0	0.0	0	0.0	19	7.0	7.0	11.7	11.7	81.2	0	0	7.00	7.00	0.0			0
2012	25	SFO	qb	7	13	7	5-2-0	136	218	62.4	1814	10	4.6	3	1.4	57	8.3	8.6	13.3	139.5	98.3	16	112	7.27	7.55	6.8	2	2	9
2013	26	SFO	QB	7	16	16	12-4-0	243	416	58.4	3197	21	5.0	8	1.9	64	7.7	7.8	13.2	199.8	91.6	39	231	6.52	6.65	8.6	0	0	15
Career					32	23	17-6-0	382	639	59.8	5046	31	4.9	11	1.7	64	7.9	8.1	13.2	157.7	93.8	55	343	6.78	6.96	7.9	2	2	24

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/7/2014.

Let’s begin with something that will make me sound like a total n00b. I had no idea Kaepernick had only played in the NFL for three seasons. Now that I’ve totally lost all credibility, I’m going to move forward. The big difference between the 2013 of Kaepernick and Flacco is described in three letters: I-N-T. Flacco’s interception rate was the highest of his career, and double Kaepernick’s. Kaepernick obviously had the superior 2013. But let’s take a look at some more advanced stats to see their careers and what they do well (and not so well) as QBs.

Flacco first, again:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Att	Y/A+	NY/A+	AY/A+	ANY/A+	Cmp%+	TD%+	Int%+	Sack%+	Rate+
2008	23	BAL	QB	5	16	16	11-5-0	428	100	95	99	96	97	91	103	93	97
2009	24	BAL	QB	5	16	16	9-7-0	499	105	103	106	105	107	101	108	95	107
2010	25	BAL	QB	5	16	16	12-4-0	489	106	101	110	107	106	110	113	90	111
2011	26	BAL	QB	5	16	16	12-4-0	542	91	94	96	98	89	93	110	107	95
2012	27	BAL	QB	5	16	16	10-6-0	531	101	102	105	105	96	98	114	102	103
2013	28	BAL	QB	5	16	16	8-8-0	614	83	83	82	82	92	86	85	93	84
Career					96	96	62-34-0	3103

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/7/2014.

And Kaepernick:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Att	Y/A+	NY/A+	AY/A+	ANY/A+	Cmp%+	TD%+	Int%+	Sack%+	Rate+
2012	25	SFO	qb	7	13	7	5-2-0	218	124	119	124	121	106	103	122	96	116
2013	26	SFO	QB	7	16	16	12-4-0	416	114	106	114	110	90	108	113	81	107
Career					32	23	17-6-0	639

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/7/2014.

Okay. Wow, that makes the INTs stand out even more for Flacco. In fact, he was below league average in every single statistic you can think of for a QB. The only stat Flacco didn’t set a career low in was sack %. But look at the one number he set a career high in: attempts. Flacco clearly missed Ray Rice, it seems, as did the Ravens as a whole. The one upside from last year: he was healthy (again). Overall, his career marks have been in favor of yardage over completion percentage — he was billed as “throw ball far” coming out of college, so that makes sense — and, until last year, avoiding INTs. I would be willing to bet Flacco will bounce back, even if it’s a dead cat bounce.

We have less information on Kaepernick, but damn, that is one fine 2013 season. He was virtually perfect at everything except Completion % and getting sacked. He even scrambles! He had one more fumble than Flacco — in about four times as many attempts. Impressive stuff.

Okay, let’s bring it all home. What does this mean?

1) Flacco’s contract already looks bad. Really bad. Even at his very best, Flacco wasn’t justifying that salary, and if he doesn’t regress towards the mean in a big way… ouch.

2) Kaepernick’s is still riskier, in the sense that we have less data on him. But the 49ers built in so many protections that I think they’ll be okay.

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