Kenny Lofton: Shut up

Paul Hoynes, Indians beat writer, interviewed Kenny Lofton about the Hall of Fame. Kenny threw out this gem.

“I don’t think Tim Raines is that much better than me,” said Lofton. “I’ve got to compare myself to guys I played against, but again, they don’t look at leadoff hitters as important parts of the game anymore. My skill set got diminished by the steroid era. . . . People can say I’m crying wolf, but I’m just telling it like it is.”

You’re joking, right? Let’s look at the numbers.

Kenny Lofton:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
1991	24	HOU	NL	20	79	74	9	15	1	0	0	0	2	1	5	19	.203	.253	.216	.469	38	16	0	0	0	0	0	8
1992	25	CLE	AL	148	651	576	96	164	15	8	5	42	66	12	68	54	.285	.362	.365	.726	107	210	7	2	4	1	3	*8	RoY-2
1993	26	CLE	AL	148	657	569	116	185	28	8	1	42	70	14	81	83	.325	.408	.408	.815	121	232	8	1	2	4	6	*8	MVP-15,GG
1994	27	CLE	AL	112	523	459	105	160	32	9	12	57	60	12	52	56	.349	.412	.536	.948	145	246	5	2	4	6	5	*8	AS,MVP-4,GG
1995	28	CLE	AL	118	529	481	93	149	22	13	7	53	54	15	40	49	.310	.362	.453	.815	110	218	6	1	4	3	6	*8/D	AS,GG
1996	29	CLE	AL	154	736	662	132	210	35	4	14	67	75	17	61	82	.317	.372	.446	.817	107	295	7	0	7	6	3	*8	AS,MVP-11,GG
1997	30	ATL	NL	122	564	493	90	164	20	6	5	48	27	20	64	83	.333	.409	.428	.837	119	211	10	2	2	3	5	*8	AS,MVP-26
1998	31	CLE	AL	154	698	600	101	169	31	6	12	64	54	10	87	80	.282	.371	.413	.785	102	248	7	2	3	6	1	*8	AS
1999	32	CLE	AL	120	561	465	110	140	28	6	7	39	25	6	79	84	.301	.405	.432	.838	112	201	6	6	5	5	2	*8/D	AS
2000	33	CLE	AL	137	640	543	107	151	23	5	15	73	30	7	79	72	.278	.369	.422	.791	100	229	11	4	6	8	3	*8/D
2001	34	CLE	AL	133	576	517	91	135	21	4	14	66	16	8	47	69	.261	.322	.398	.721	89	206	8	2	5	5	1	*8
2002	35	TOT	MLB	139	611	532	98	139	30	9	11	51	29	11	72	73	.261	.350	.414	.763	103	220	1	1	5	1	0	*8
2002	35	CHW	AL	93	406	352	68	91	20	6	8	42	22	8	49	51	.259	.348	.418	.766	102	147	0	0	4	1	0	8
2002	35	SFG	NL	46	205	180	30	48	10	3	3	9	7	3	23	22	.267	.353	.406	.758	104	73	1	1	1	0	0	8
2003	36	TOT	NL	140	610	547	97	162	32	8	12	46	30	9	46	51	.296	.352	.450	.801	106	246	6	4	7	6	3	*8
2003	36	PIT	NL	84	374	339	58	94	19	4	9	26	18	5	28	29	.277	.333	.437	.770	98	148	2	2	2	3	1	8
2003	36	CHC	NL	56	236	208	39	68	13	4	3	20	12	4	18	22	.327	.381	.471	.852	120	98	4	2	5	3	2	8
2004	37	NYY	AL	83	313	276	51	76	10	7	3	18	7	3	31	27	.275	.346	.395	.741	95	109	4	1	1	4	1	89/D
2005	38	PHI	NL	110	406	367	67	123	15	5	2	36	22	3	32	41	.335	.392	.420	.811	109	154	3	2	5	0	2	8/D
2006	39	LAD	NL	129	522	469	79	141	15	12	3	41	32	5	45	42	.301	.360	.403	.763	95	189	16	0	6	2	1	*8/D
2007	40	TOT	AL	136	559	490	86	145	25	6	7	38	23	7	56	51	.296	.367	.414	.781	105	203	6	2	6	5	1	*87/D
2007	40	TEX	AL	84	363	317	62	96	16	3	7	23	21	4	39	28	.303	.380	.438	.818	115	139	5	2	2	3	1	8/D
2007	40	CLE	AL	52	196	173	24	49	9	3	0	15	2	3	17	23	.283	.344	.370	.714	88	64	1	0	4	2	0	7/8
17 Yrs				2103	9235	8120	1528	2428	383	116	130	781	622	160	945	1016	.299	.372	.423	.794	107	3433	111	32	72	65	43
162 Game Avg.				162	711	626	118	187	30	9	10	60	48	12	73	78	.299	.372	.423	.794	107	264	9	2	6	5	3
				G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
CLE (10 yrs)				1276	5767	5045	975	1512	244	66	87	518	452	104	611	652	.300	.375	.426	.800	109	2149	66	20	44	46	30
PIT (1 yr)				84	374	339	58	94	19	4	9	26	18	5	28	29	.277	.333	.437	.770	98	148	2	2	2	3	1
SFG (1 yr)				46	205	180	30	48	10	3	3	9	7	3	23	22	.267	.353	.406	.758	104	73	1	1	1	0	0
PHI (1 yr)				110	406	367	67	123	15	5	2	36	22	3	32	41	.335	.392	.420	.811	109	154	3	2	5	0	2
ATL (1 yr)				122	564	493	90	164	20	6	5	48	27	20	64	83	.333	.409	.428	.837	119	211	10	2	2	3	5
TEX (1 yr)				84	363	317	62	96	16	3	7	23	21	4	39	28	.303	.380	.438	.818	115	139	5	2	2	3	1
LAD (1 yr)				129	522	469	79	141	15	12	3	41	32	5	45	42	.301	.360	.403	.763	95	189	16	0	6	2	1
CHC (1 yr)				56	236	208	39	68	13	4	3	20	12	4	18	22	.327	.381	.471	.852	120	98	4	2	5	3	2
NYY (1 yr)				83	313	276	51	76	10	7	3	18	7	3	31	27	.275	.346	.395	.741	95	109	4	1	1	4	1
HOU (1 yr)				20	79	74	9	15	1	0	0	0	2	1	5	19	.203	.253	.216	.469	38	16	0	0	0	0	0
CHW (1 yr)				93	406	352	68	91	20	6	8	42	22	8	49	51	.259	.348	.418	.766	102	147	0	0	4	1	0
AL (12 yrs)				1536	6849	5990	1156	1775	290	82	105	601	502	119	730	758	.296	.372	.425	.797	108	2544	75	23	51	54	32
NL (6 yrs)				567	2386	2130	372	653	93	34	25	180	120	41	215	258	.307	.371	.417	.788	105	889	36	9	21	11	11

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/24/2013.

Tim Raines:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
1979	19	MON	NL	6	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0						0	0	0	0	0	0
1980	20	MON	NL	15	27	20	5	1	0	0	0	0	5	0	6	3	.050	.269	.050	.319	-5	1	0	0	1	0	0	/47
1981	21	MON	NL	88	363	313	61	95	13	7	5	37	71	11	45	31	.304	.391	.438	.829	135	137	7	2	0	3	5	*7/4	AS,MVP-19,RoY-2
1982	22	MON	NL	156	731	647	90	179	32	8	4	43	78	16	75	83	.277	.353	.369	.723	101	239	6	2	6	1	9	*74	AS
1983	23	MON	NL	156	720	615	133	183	32	8	11	71	90	14	97	70	.298	.393	.429	.822	129	264	12	2	2	4	9	*7/489	AS,MVP-5
1984	24	MON	NL	160	718	622	106	192	38	9	8	60	75	10	87	69	.309	.393	.437	.830	138	272	7	2	3	4	7	*8/4	AS,MVP-11
1985	25	MON	NL	150	665	575	115	184	30	13	11	41	70	9	81	60	.320	.405	.475	.880	151	273	9	3	3	3	13	*7	AS,MVP-12
1986	26	MON	NL	151	664	580	91	194	35	10	9	62	70	9	78	60	.334	.413	.476	.889	145	276	6	2	1	3	9	*7	AS,MVP-6,SS
1987	27	MON	NL	139	627	530	123	175	34	8	18	68	50	5	90	52	.330	.429	.526	.955	149	279	9	4	0	3	26	*7	AS,MVP-7
1988	28	MON	NL	109	488	429	66	116	19	7	12	48	33	7	53	44	.270	.350	.431	.782	120	185	8	2	0	4	14	7
1989	29	MON	NL	145	618	517	76	148	29	6	9	60	41	9	93	48	.286	.395	.418	.813	132	216	8	3	0	5	18	*7	MVP-17
1990	30	MON	NL	130	538	457	65	131	11	5	9	62	49	16	70	43	.287	.379	.392	.771	117	179	9	3	0	8	8	*7
1991	31	CHW	AL	155	709	609	102	163	20	6	5	50	51	15	83	68	.268	.359	.345	.703	98	210	7	5	9	3	9	*7D/89
1992	32	CHW	AL	144	644	551	102	162	22	9	7	54	45	6	81	48	.294	.380	.405	.784	122	223	5	0	4	8	4	*7D/8
1993	33	CHW	AL	115	486	415	75	127	16	4	16	54	21	7	64	35	.306	.401	.480	.880	138	199	7	3	2	2	4	*7
1994	34	CHW	AL	101	453	384	80	102	15	5	10	52	13	0	61	43	.266	.365	.409	.774	102	157	10	1	4	3	3	*7
1995	35	CHW	AL	133	581	502	81	143	25	4	12	67	13	2	70	52	.285	.374	.422	.796	111	212	8	3	3	3	3	*7D/9
1996	36	NYY	AL	59	240	201	45	57	10	0	9	33	10	1	34	29	.284	.383	.468	.851	114	94	5	1	0	4	1	7/D
1997	37	NYY	AL	74	318	271	56	87	20	2	4	38	8	5	41	34	.321	.403	.454	.856	124	123	4	0	0	6	0	7D
1998	38	NYY	AL	109	382	321	53	93	13	1	5	47	8	3	55	49	.290	.395	.383	.778	107	123	5	3	0	3	1	D7
1999	39	OAK	AL	58	164	135	20	29	5	0	4	17	4	1	26	17	.215	.337	.341	.678	79	46	5	0	1	2	1	7/D8
2001	41	TOT	MLB	51	109	89	14	27	8	1	1	9	1	0	18	9	.303	.413	.449	.862	124	40	2	0	0	2	0	7/D
2001	41	MON	NL	47	97	78	13	24	8	1	0	4	1	0	18	6	.308	.433	.436	.869	126	34	2	0	0	1	0	7
2001	41	BAL	AL	4	12	11	1	3	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	3	.273	.250	.545	.795	106	6	0	0	0	1	0	/7D
2002	42	FLA	NL	98	114	89	9	17	3	0	1	7	0	0	22	19	.191	.351	.258	.609	66	23	3	1	0	2	4	7/D
23 Yrs				2502	10359	8872	1571	2605	430	113	170	980	808	146	1330	966	.294	.385	.425	.810	123	3771	142	42	39	76	148
162 Game Avg.				162	671	574	102	169	28	7	11	63	52	9	86	63	.294	.385	.425	.810	123	244	9	3	3	5	10
				G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
MON (13 yrs)				1452	6256	5383	947	1622	281	82	96	556	635	106	793	569	.301	.391	.437	.829	131	2355	83	25	16	39	118
CHW (5 yrs)				648	2873	2461	440	697	98	28	50	277	143	30	359	246	.283	.375	.407	.781	113	1001	37	12	22	19	23
NYY (3 yrs)				242	940	793	154	237	43	3	18	118	26	9	130	112	.299	.395	.429	.823	115	340	14	4	0	13	2
OAK (1 yr)				58	164	135	20	29	5	0	4	17	4	1	26	17	.215	.337	.341	.678	79	46	5	0	1	2	1
FLA (1 yr)				98	114	89	9	17	3	0	1	7	0	0	22	19	.191	.351	.258	.609	66	23	3	1	0	2	4
BAL (1 yr)				4	12	11	1	3	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	3	.273	.250	.545	.795	106	6	0	0	0	1	0
NL (14 yrs)				1550	6370	5472	956	1639	284	82	97	563	635	106	815	588	.300	.390	.435	.825	130	2378	86	26	16	41	122
AL (10 yrs)				952	3989	3400	615	966	146	31	73	417	173	40	515	378	.284	.377	.410	.787	112	1393	56	16	23	35	26

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/24/2013.

A quick scan of their counting stats would seem to actually prove Lofton’s case: Tim Raines had about 1000 more plate appearances, so it makes sense his counting stats would be higher. I don’t think it’s enough to overcome the huge difference in stolen bases  or walks, but Kenny Lofton would probably equal Raines in hits, doubles, and possibly homers. Of course, if we take Lofton at his word, we have to compare them as leadoff hitters. Fair enough. Good leadoff hitters need to get on base and stay there. Career OBP is 13 points higher for Raines, and that’s because he was better at drawing walks than Lofton — much better, in fact. Lofton struck out more too; that’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it still means he was on base less often than Raines. As far as hitting is concerned, they’re about equal, but Raines was much better at getting on base.

What about staying there? Lofton was, surprisingly, a really terrible runner. He only successfully stole a base 56% of the time — well below the “break even” line, which is usually 75%. Even if we give him credit for stealing when few others did, he still stole lots of bases because he ran a lot, not because he was good at it. Raines stole at an 85% clip; that’s leagues better.

Now, Lofton does get some credit being a much better fielder — he played CF, and if dWAR is a good indication, was pretty good at it, with a net dWAR of 14.7 for his career; that means, over his career, he added about a win a season with his glove. (Slightly less, but we’re just looking at rough numbers). Raines was a mediocre LF, and his net dWAR is -9.5., so he cost his team half a win every other season. (He also played a weird amount of 2B, which he wasn’t very good at either).

From OPS+, Raines looks worlds better, because the 1980s weren’t a great offensive era. Lofton was good, but his comparison isn’t other players of his skill set — there weren’t very many in the Steroid Era — it’s other outfielders, and in terms of offensive production, he was only 7% better than league average. That’s respectable, but not exactly breathtaking.

So, in conclusion, Lofton is surprisingly comparable to Raines in terms of raw numbers (they’re each others #2 similarity score, which is weird), but Raines gets a big boost for being a great baserunner and getting on base more, which is after all what you want in a leadoff hitter. However, Lofton probably deserved more attention for the Hall than he got, which was Lofton’s point.

He just shouldn’t have used Tim Raines to make it.