Football writers should use advanced metrics

I saw this article and was eager to see where Brandon Weeden ranked among rookie QBs. He ranked #5, unsurprisingly. Here’s what they had to say about #4, Ryan Tannehill:

Recurring themes: Tannehill stands in tall against pressure. He has a big arm and can throw a nice touch pass. He can throw well on the move to either direction, something theDolphins didn’t do enough of during the season. Tannehill had streaks of wildness, especially in the second half of the season. His bad games were true “rookie games” but he always bounced back. While he wasn’t quite as steady as the rookies above, he had a lot of shining moments. His Week 12 comeback against the Seahawks was a thing of beauty. Tannehill was dealing against Luck and the Colts, too. Tannehill is not afraid to make tough throws and completed a lot of passes into tight windows under pressure.

Sounds like a pretty solid QB, right? The kind of guy you should have on your team. Let’s check out Weeden’s comment.

Recurring themes: Weeden’s decision-making and movement in the pocket often were slow. He quickly got better against pressure and has a very strong arm. Weeden sprinkled in a few “wow” throws each week, but he wasn’t quite consistent enough. His touch was erratic. He was not afraid to try to difficult throws, which was a positive trait. He didn’t always show a great feel for the position like the players above.

So, Weeden throw ball hard. In other words, a more accurate Derek Anderson. This article contains no statistics, so I decided to look them up.

Tannehill:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2012	24	MIA	QB	17	16	16	7-9-0	282	484	58.3	3294	12	2.5	13	2.7	80	6.8	6.1	11.7	205.9	76.1	52.28	35	234	5.90	5.23	6.7	1	1
Career					16	16	7-9-0	282	484	58.3	3294	12	2.5	13	2.7	80	6.8	6.1	11.7	205.9	76.1		35	234	5.90	5.23	6.7	1	1

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/4/2013.

Weeden:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2012	29	CLE	QB	3	15	15	5-10-0	297	517	57.4	3385	14	2.7	17	3.3	71	6.5	5.6	11.4	225.7	72.6	26.6	28	186	5.87	4.98	5.1	1	1
Career					15	15	5-10-0	297	517	57.4	3385	14	2.7	17	3.3	71	6.5	5.6	11.4	225.7	72.6		28	186	5.87	4.98	5.1	1	1

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/4/2013.

Uh… where’s this tremendous difference? Does ESPN’s “QBR” — the only stat they differ significantly in — include “feel for the position”? QBR includes “clutch”, according to Football Outsiders, along with other things. Wonderful. Could it also be that the Dolphins, as a whole, had a better offense? Or that Tannehill played all 16 games, Weeden 15? Nah, it’s got to be “feel.” Speaking of FO, here’s what they’ve got.

Tannehill: DYAR 37/DVOA -10%

Weeden: DYAR -290/DVOA -19.4%

Depending on which stat you value more (DYAR is an absolute stat, DVOA a rate stat), Tannehill’s either just slightly better than Weeden or a reasonable bit better than Weeden. Of course, the difference between Tannehill and Weeden is smaller than the difference between Tom Brady and Drew Brees (2035/1444), even by DYAR, and Weeden played in one fewer game. In other words, by most statistical measures…

They’re pretty similar. Weeden threw a few more INTs, but Tannehill fumbled more (9-6). Tannehill had 100 more yards of rushing and two rushing TDs. Weeden was better at avoiding sacks. They are, in other words, nearly identical in most respects. Tannehill is younger (24 to 29), and if you’d rather have Tannehill for that reason, I wouldn’t blame you. I just fail to see why Tannehill “has shown enough to be a true ‘quarterback of the future’ Dolphins fans and management can be excited about. His play and quarterback attributes are far better than his numbers. Tannehill did a great job considering the weapons around him. He wasn’t nearly the project many expected” but Weeden “probably wasn’t as bad as you think this season. But he didn’t quite show enough to make the next decision-maker in Cleveland believe he’s ‘the guy.'”

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