Megan McArdle is very pessimistic about the fate of Greece (and the other PIIGS countries). Her concern is that Greece’s sovereign debt crisis will not be handled well enough to prevent the country from running into problems big enough to foment a second global depression.
I’m not quite sure what to think. I’ve been pessimistic about the long-term prospects of the Euro, as well as the European welfare states (and, in a generation, the American welfare state), so I can agree with her analysis. I also want to see the Euro go as an economic zone—I greatly prefer a free trade zone with separate monetary and fiscal policies, sort of like the EFTA. But this would be a high cost for such an outcome.