36 Chambers – The Legendary Journeys: Execution to the max!

May 10, 2013

Can’t fail strategies (unless they do fail) for OOTP 14

Filed under: Sports, Video Games — Tony Demchak @ 12:45 am

This will be like my series of articles for Madden, only it’s all in one article, and it’s about Out of the Park Baseball 2014 instead of Madden 12. I am assuming that a) you are playing with scouting turned on and b) you are using standard MLB 2013 settings.

Step 1: The two most important positions on your team are team trainer and scout.

Team trainers are generated less frequently than any coaching position, and there are maybe one or two good ones each year. They keep your pricey baseball players from getting hurt. Scouts mean more accurate ratings (although pay attention to their bias — this will affect how they value certain traits).

Step 2: The most important place to spend money, apart from these two positions, is your scouting budget.

This determines, again, how accurate your ratings are. How you divvy it up is important too, but not as important. The more money you have, total, the better off you are. As far as how you divide it up, that depends on your particular philosophy for improving your team. That leads me into step 3…

Step 3: Choose a design philosophy for your team.

A lot of this depends on the size of your market, the size of your budget, and how expensive your current roster is. There are three ways to effectively build a roster:

International free agents/recruits – the new International Complex lets you store up to 50 players between the ages of 16 or 20. Your scout will find these periodically during the season (for free), and there will be an international free agent bidding process after the draft.

The draft — This is potentially the cheapest way of acquiring talent in terms of money. Only the first five rounds have mandatory bonuses. However, about 90% of this is out of your hands — if your team isn’t terrible, you’ll have a lot of difficulty getting good prospects at the top of the draft.

Acquiring established talent — Either through trades or free agency. Trading for prospects is a great way to supplement the draft. The trade AI isn’t entirely brilliant, but it does tend to value players correctly.

You can, of course, use a combination of all three, but the scouting budget is best used if you focus on no more than two areas (as in 25%+ spent). Major league scouting is best for established veterans, minor league scouting for prospects; amateurs and international scouting are self explanatory. You don’t want to overspecialize either; you can be penalized with inaccurate ratings from time to time (some of which can be mighty expensive).

Step 4: Figure out what you have.

Ratings are nice, but don’t tell the whole story; check your stats too. Some players over perform their ratings pretty consistently; others under perform. Rate stats are generally more useful than counting stats; I personally use VORP and OPS+ for hitters, ERA+, FIP, and BABIP for pitchers. K/BB ratio is extremely important as well.

Step 5: Shed payroll.

More money is better than less money. Look for overpriced veterans, or guys getting their first crack at free agency but aren’t worth the huge contracts they’ll command. This may mean your first year will be rough; that’s part of the cost of doing business.

Step 6: Use freed up money sensibly.

The best use of money is ALWAYS buying out arbitration years of talented rookies. Cost certainty is absolutely critical for long term planning, and that’s how you’ll get out of whatever rut you find yourself. Failing that, invest in international free agents and the draft. Major league free agents should be pursued only when a) you get good value, b) you need one or two cogs for a championship, or c) if it’s something you’ve had a hard time developing yourself. Never pay more than $2 million for a reliever unless he’s the closer or likely to be very soon. Try to balance offense and defense as best you can, but if you can’t, go for one extreme or another. Guys who can kind of hit and kind of field tend to get a lot of money — they aren’t worth it.

Step 7: Hire the best coaches money can buy.

Cheap talent is useless if you don’t develop it, and for that you need coaches. It isn’t clear what the Player Development Budget does, but it’s better to have too much in it than not enough. Stockpile coaches, so when they retire you don’t always have to look on the open market for it. Resign good ones.

One bonus step to long term success:

Step 8: If you play GM only mode, watch the AI’s lineups.

The AI will do very stupid things if you let it. These include playing guys out of position and letting a great defender get all the at bats because why not? Sometimes it is better to trade that great defender to keep him out of the lineup.

That’s it for now — I’ll have some quick hits in a few days, and will be happy to answer questions in the comments.

May 9, 2013

An Opening For Entrepreneurial Republicans

Filed under: (In)Security, Curmudgeonliness — Kevin Feasel @ 6:00 pm

Courts have upheld a $222,000 fine for sharing 24 songs.  This punitive fine is radically outsized considering the harm (if any) the sharing of these 24 songs caused.  Republican politicians interested in capturing a larger percentage of Millenial voters should take this as an opportunity to revise existing copyright law and change damages to be representitive of provable losses.  Ideally, I’d consider “provable losses” to be the market value of whatever copyrighted material a user is sharing.  In the event that an item is not currently being published or distributed—for example, pirating a copyrighted book which is out of print—a nominal charge of a few dollars would apply.

Other (possibly superior) alternatives include limiting copyright to 3-7 years depending upon the medium, or eliminating copyright altogether.

Even more Browns fun

Filed under: Sports — Tony Demchak @ 3:45 pm

– Read this piece by Chuck Klosterman in Grantland. (The “read” is the imperative form of the verb, not the past tense of the verb.) It’s really well done. If you wonder why the name “Factory of Sadness” has been going around as a nickname for the Browns (and Cleveland in general), you won’t any more. Kind of weird how much secrecy there is, though, especially since he’s printing this after the draft.

– Other big article today was this one. I love some of the WR prospects they discuss. K-State alum TE Travis Tannahill is… a tight end who happened to graduate from K-State. No QB, which I thought was odd, but still, some solid picks.

May 8, 2013

Why Government Officials Are Glad They Can’t Be Sued For False Advertising

Filed under: Curmudgeonliness — Kevin Feasel @ 6:00 pm

The online Obamacare application went from a complex, 21-page document to being a streamlined 7-page document, plus an additional 8 pages (for four children), plus an additional 5 pages—in other words, 21 pages down to 20 is a “new and improved” document.

Browns news (again)

Filed under: Sports — Tony Demchak @ 4:47 pm

So, Jimmy Haslam, new owner of the Browns, is probably involved in something hideously illegal, but I don’t want to talk about that. Let’s talk about Football Outsiders instead.

Cleveland Browns

Biggest Post-Draft Hole: Passing Attack

Rumors flew all spring, but in the end Cleveland’s new brain trust passed on drafting a new quarterback, didn’t trade forRyan Mallett, and is apparently ready to open the season with Brandon Weeden at the helm. That thought can’t provide fans of this quarterback-challenged franchise with much hope.

Sure, Weeden was a rookie, but so were Russell WilsonRobert Griffin, and Andrew Luck, and none of those players are turning 30 this October. Even less-heralded newcomer Ryan Tannehill placed well ahead of Weeden in DYAR, DVOA, Total QBR, and ET (eye test).

While the Dolphins went out and signed Mike WallaceDustin Keller, and Brandon Gibson to juice their passing attack for Tannehill, the Browns mainly kept the arsenal doors padlocked, save for the draft day import of Davone Bess, a wideout made expendable in South Florida by the aforementioned weaponry. Bess is decent — he placed a spot ahead of the far more acclaimed Jeremy Maclin in our DYAR stats for 2012, for example. But even if you consider Josh Gordon part of this year’s haul because the Browns used a supplemental choice on him in 2012, Cleveland didn’t do much to cure its offensive anemia.

Instead, much will depend on the development of Weeden, Gordon, and Greg Little. New head coach Rob Chudzinski didn’t exactly give Weeden a ringing endorsement last week when he told a local radio station that new backup Jason Campbellwill be given every chance to claim the starting job.
Gordon provided several flashes of deep speed during his rookie campaign, and Little improved his catch rate from a putrid 51 percent to an underwhelming 58 percent. Yet neither receiver showed much route-running polish, and that can’t be blamed on the quarterback throwing to them.
Chudzinski is a former tight end, and has enjoyed much success working tight ends into the offense at previous stops. He’ll have his work cut out for him in Cleveland — incumbent Jordan Cameron came to the Browns with very little college football experience, played very little as a rookie, and then ranked just 42nd in our tight end DVOA ratings in his second year. That put him four spots ahead of his new backup, Kellen Davis, who was run out of Chicago by irate Bears fans.

I can’t say they’re far wrong (although yes, Weeden is not bad as everybody says), and I was a little disappointed by how little attention was paid to offense in the draft. He did neglect impressively tall Bills receiver David Nelson. Overall, though, I think a certain amount of improvement can be expected from the Browns passing attack this year; Trent Richardson being healthy all year should take more pressure off Weeden to perform well, and everybody is a year older and wiser. It won’t be dramatic — Weeden is limited as a QB — but it should be sufficient to win another game or so. At least, that’s what I hope.

May 7, 2013

Kang And Kodos Would Be Proud

Filed under: Curmudgeonliness, Hey Whore How's The Whoring? — Kevin Feasel @ 6:00 pm

The National Association for the Advancement of Billionaire People (NAABP) has essentially-identical websites for Republican-leaning and Democratic-leaning voters.  Leave it to a software developer type to be so lazy as to create one template for both…

May 6, 2013

Security Notes

Filed under: (In)Security — Kevin Feasel @ 6:00 pm

May 5, 2013

The Government We Deserve

Filed under: Curmudgeonliness, General Stupidity — Kevin Feasel @ 6:00 pm

42% of people think Obamacare has already been repealed (were that those 42% were correct!).  38% of pro-lifers support the biggest abortion racket out there.  When citizens don’t pay attention, politicians can get away with saying and doing pretty much anything.

May 4, 2013

Piecemeal Immigration Reform

Filed under: Curmudgeonliness — Kevin Feasel @ 6:00 pm

George Will and Newt Gingrich support this idea.  One of the biggest flaws of  “comprehensive immigration reform” (which is a political euphemism for amnesty) is that the people trying to pass it don’t really want comprehensive immigration reform.  They want amnesty, but not enforcement.  The last time “comprehensive” immigration reform happened, the end result was amnesty with no enforcement and the subsequent entry of millions of illegal immigrants into the United States.

Supporters of amnesty hate the idea of enforcement-first piecemeal reform because amnesty itself is an unpopular topic—so much so that the politicians supporting amnesty flat-out deny that what they are doing is amnesty, pointing to tiny costs (which people who have already violated American law once will probably continue to violate) or creating a status of indentured servitude for millions of people to show how “tough” the politicans are.

The irony here is that amnesty is more likely to occur (and gain public favor) if enforcement-only bills were passed and implemented successfully.  There would be fewer illegal immigrants and with actual verification (and actual punishment for firms which violate the law and knowingly hire illegal immigrants), the cost of amnesty to Americans would be lower.  But this wouldn’t placate the amnesty-only crowd, so on the fight, arguing that we need “comprehensive” (without the enforcement) immigration reform.

May 3, 2013

Nationalization In A Few More Words

Filed under: Economics — Kevin Feasel @ 6:00 pm

Zimbabwe has confiscated foreign-owned enterprises.  I have but one question:  what companies were stupid enough to set up shop in Zimbabwe as long as that excerable regime was still in power?  Obviously not the brightest of bulbs there.

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