36 Chambers – The Legendary Journeys: Execution to the max!

May 15, 2014

Twitter has delivered its first useful, unexpected fact to me

Filed under: Sports — Tony Demchak @ 5:28 pm

Here it is:

If you’re curious, those numbers are 260 catches, 174 catches, and 164 catches for the three named. Let’s look at them in some detail. Step on up, AJ Green!

Receiving Rushing
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV
2011* 23 CIN WR 18 15 15 65 1057 16.3 7 58 4.3 70.5 5 53 0 22 10.6 3.5 0.3 1110 7 1 10
2012* 24 CIN WR 18 16 16 97 1350 13.9 11 73 6.1 84.4 4 38 0 20 9.5 2.4 0.3 1388 11 2 13
2013* 25 CIN WR 18 16 16 98 1426 14.6 11 82 6.1 89.1 1426 11 1 13
Career 47 47 260 3833 14.7 29 82 5.5 81.6 9 91 0 22 10.1 1.9 0.2 3924 29 4 36
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/16/2014.

You don’t need me to tell you that’s pretty damn good. Remember that his quarterback is Andy Dalton; those are eye popping numbers, and he is an elite wide receiver. Next, we have Julio Jones, who the Browns could have had but didn’t thanks to a draft day trade.

Receiving Rushing
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV
2011 22 ATL WR 11 13 13 54 959 17.8 8 80 4.2 73.8 6 56 0 19 9.3 4.3 0.5 1015 8 1 10
2012* 23 ATL WR 11 16 15 79 1198 15.2 10 80 4.9 74.9 6 30 0 18 5.0 1.9 0.4 1228 10 0 13
2013 24 ATL WR 11 5 5 41 580 14.1 2 81 8.2 116.0 1 7 0 7 7.0 1.4 0.2 587 2 2 5
Career 34 33 174 2737 15.7 20 81 5.1 80.5 13 93 0 19 7.2 2.7 0.4 2830 20 3 28
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/16/2014.

Those picks, incidentally, turned into Phil Taylor, Greg Little, Owen Marecic, Brandon Weeden, and with a couple of those extra picks, Trent Richardson. Trent Richardson turned into… Johnny Football (with the help of another pick or two). All of those players have been solid, except Weeden and Manziel, who hasn’t played yet, for the Browns.

Still, let’s stick to the receivers. Jones had a very fine rookie year, improved in his sophomore year, got hurt his junior year (to continue the metaphor). That’s still an excellent five game stretch, and the Falcons got what they asked for: a top flight receiver.

Torrey Smith, weighing in at #3.

Receiving Rushing
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV
2011 22 BAL WR 82 16 14 50 841 16.8 7 74 3.1 52.6 4 39 0 16 9.8 2.4 0.3 880 7 1 8
2012 23 BAL WR 82 16 16 49 855 17.4 8 54 3.1 53.4 3 9 0 13 3.0 0.6 0.2 864 8 0 8
2013 24 BAL WR 82 16 16 65 1128 17.4 4 74 4.1 70.5 1128 4 1 8
Career 48 46 164 2824 17.2 19 74 3.4 58.8 7 48 0 16 6.9 1.0 0.1 2872 19 2 24
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/16/2014.

Smith has followed the “three year career path” for receivers almost to the letter. A nice rookie season, a roughly equal second season, and a stellar third season.

Last, and sadly least, Greg Little.

Receiving Rushing
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV
2011 22 CLE WR 15 16 12 61 709 11.6 2 76 3.8 44.3 3 15 0 13 5.0 0.9 0.2 724 2 0 5
2012 23 CLE WR 15 16 16 53 647 12.2 4 43 3.3 40.4 2 15 0 17 7.5 0.9 0.1 662 4 0 5
2013 24 CLE WR 18 16 13 41 465 11.3 2 47 2.6 29.1 465 2 0 3
Career 48 41 155 1821 11.7 8 76 3.2 37.9 5 30 0 17 6.0 0.6 0.1 1851 8 0 13
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/16/2014.

Oh, Greg. This is a good example of why catch numbers don’t mean everything. He had more catches than everyone but Green his rookie season, but his yards per reception are terrible, and very few of his catches have been touchdowns. Green is a big guy — 6″ plus with enough muscle to be a solid red zone target — yet he has a small problem. He drops the ball. A lot. 2013 wasn’t so bad — his 6 drops were only tied for 19th in the AFC, and both Smith and Green dropped more passes. Still, if you only catch the ball 41 times, 6 drops is not good, either. That’s 10% of your passes. Pro Football Reference doesn’t keep track of targets; only catches. I got the 2013 drops stats from here. I haven’t been able to find drops stats from past seasons, sadly, but I recall from memory that he dropped at least 10 passes in each season. He’s stellar in Madden, but in real life… not so much.

Now, all of this was triggered by that Tweet, so mission accomplished, Twitter. I hope we all learned a valuable lesson: that lesson should be that total catches is a stupid stat without context unless it’s insanely high in a given year (90+).

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1 Comment »

  1. […] my dissection of Greg Little yesterday, the Browns cut him today. Coincidence? Almost […]

    Pingback by Proof that Ray Farmer reads our blog! | 36 Chambers - The Legendary Journeys: Execution to the max! — May 16, 2014 @ 11:15 am


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