Alex Remington discusses Aaron Harang and Ervin Santana’s resurgences with Atlanta. For Harang, it’s all about getting rid of a changeup and curveball, focusing on his three best pitches. For Santana, it’s about using the changeup more. Both of them have been lucky so far, and clearly neither will carry a sub-1 ERA through the rest of the season.
Based solely on these descriptions and what I’ve seen so far this year, I’d say that Santana has a better chance of holding on. Santana has a more recent history of success and better fundamentals, and adding the changeup makes him more dangerous. For Harang, you can definitely ride smoke and mirrors for a while, but an extreme flyball pitcher in an Atlanta summer will give up home; combine that with his high walk rate and you have a good chance of regression.
Fortunately, the Braves should be able to ride Harang as long as they can, and once he starts tailing off, Mike Minor and Gavin Floyd will be able to slide into the rotation, meaning that Harang becomes a luxury rather than a necessity.