Will the makeover of the Indians work?

Rob Neyer says maybe. Ken Rosenthal says probably.

If you hadn’t heard, the Indians have acquired, essentially, three new outfielders — Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, and Drew Stubbs. I’ve commented on the latter earlier, so I’ll focus my attention on the other two new acquisitions. Significantly, both came via free agency. Conveniently, both Bourn and Swisher have more or less the same contract — 4 year deals, although Swisher got more cash ($56 million vs. $48 million) and both have vesting options. They’ve also made some excellent low risk signings for the pitching staff in Brett Myers, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Scott Kazmir.  Mark Reynolds will play 1B/DH and provide power, something the Indians haven’t had in a while. Yet Bourn and Swisher are where the Tribe spent the money, so let’s focus on them.

Michael Bourn’s career line:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2006	23	PHI	NL	17	11	8	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	3	.125	.222	.125	.347	-9	1	0	0	2	0	0	9/7
2007	24	PHI	NL	105	133	119	29	33	3	3	1	6	18	1	13	21	.277	.348	.378	.727	86	45	1	0	1	0	2	78/9
2008	25	HOU	NL	138	514	467	57	107	10	4	5	29	41	10	37	111	.229	.288	.300	.588	57	140	3	2	7	1	0	*8
2009	26	HOU	NL	157	678	606	97	173	27	12	3	35	61	12	63	140	.285	.354	.384	.738	97	233	1	2	5	2	1	*8	GG
2010	27	HOU	NL	141	605	535	84	142	25	6	2	38	52	12	59	109	.265	.341	.346	.686	89	185	6	3	6	2	5	*8	AS,GG
2011	28	TOT	NL	158	722	656	94	193	34	10	2	50	61	14	53	140	.294	.349	.386	.734	103	253	6	4	5	4	3	*8
2011	28	HOU	NL	105	473	429	64	130	26	7	1	32	39	7	38	90	.303	.363	.403	.766	113	173	5	3	2	1	2	8
2011	28	ATL	NL	53	249	227	30	63	8	3	1	18	22	7	15	50	.278	.321	.352	.674	85	80	1	1	3	3	1	8
2012	29	ATL	NL	155	703	624	96	171	26	10	9	57	42	13	70	155	.274	.348	.391	.739	99	244	2	3	2	4	1	*8	AS,MVP-18
7 Yrs				871	3366	3015	459	820	125	45	22	215	276	64	296	679	.272	.339	.365	.704	90	1101	19	14	28	13	12
162 Game Avg.				162	626	561	85	153	23	8	4	40	51	12	55	126	.272	.339	.365	.704	90	205	4	3	5	2	2
HOU (4 yrs)				541	2270	2037	302	552	88	29	11	134	193	41	197	450	.271	.337	.359	.696	89	731	15	10	20	6	8
ATL (2 yrs)				208	952	851	126	234	34	13	10	75	64	20	85	205	.275	.341	.381	.722	96	324	3	4	5	7	2
PHI (2 yrs)				122	144	127	31	34	3	3	1	6	19	3	14	24	.268	.340	.362	.703	79	46	1	0	3	0	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/12/2013.

and

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	Rbat	Rbaser	Rdp	Rfield	Rpos	RAA	WAA	Rrep	RAR	WAR	waaWL%	162WL%	oWAR	dWAR	oRAR	Salary	Pos	Awards
2006	23	PHI	NL	17	11	-2	-0	0	0	-0	-2	-0.2	0	-2	-0.2	.486	.499	-0.2	-0.0	-2		9/7
2007	24	PHI	NL	105	133	-3	4	0	6	-2	5	0.5	4	9	0.9	.505	.503	0.3	0.4	3	$380,000	78/9
2008	25	HOU	NL	138	514	-28	4	1	1	2	-20	-2.1	14	-6	-0.7	.485	.487	-0.8	0.3	-7	$396,000	*8
2009	26	HOU	NL	157	678	-0	10	4	11	2	28	2.9	18	46	4.7	.518	.518	3.5	1.4	35	$434,500	*8	GG
2010	27	HOU	NL	141	605	-8	9	2	30	2	34	3.7	17	51	5.3	.526	.523	2.1	3.5	21	$2,400,000	*8	AS,GG
2011	28	HOU	NL	105	473	7	4	1	-6	2	8	0.9	13	21	2.1	.508	.505	2.7	-0.4	27	$4,400,000	8
2011	28	ATL	NL	53	249	-5	2	1	3	1	2	0.2	7	9	0.9	.504	.501	0.5	0.4	6		8
2012	29	ATL	NL	155	703	0	7	3	24	2	37	4.1	20	56	6.0	.526	.525	3.2	3.0	33	$6,845,000	*8	AS,MVP-18
7 Seasons				871	3366	-38	39	12	69	10	92	10.0	92	184	19.0	.511	.508	11.3	8.6	115	$14,855,500
HOU (4 yrs)				541	2270	-29	27	8	36	8	50	5.3	62	112	11.4	.510	.508	7.5	4.8	76	$7,630,500
ATL (2 yrs)				208	952	-4	9	4	27	3	39	4.4	27	65	6.9	.520	.513	3.7	3.4	38	$6,845,000
PHI (2 yrs)				122	144	-5	3	0	6	-2	3	0.3	4	7	0.7	.502	.501	0.1	0.4	1	$380,000

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/12/2013.

What does this tell us about Michael Bourn? First, he’s a slap hitter, but gets on base at a decent clip. He’s got good speed too, something the Indians haven’t had much in the recent past. He’s been about a 5 to 6 win player with the bat from 2009-2012, excluding a 3 win dip in 2011. dWAR (defensive Wins Above Replacement) has added another three wins via his glove. I don’t know the formulae, but that suggests a pretty damn good player. Now, he is on the wrong side of 30, and the dip in 2011 is troubling. 2012 Bourn is worth every penny of his salary; 2011 Bourn less so. WAR (even oWAR) and dWAR do not create a meaningful total, so he’s not an MVP candidate, but a legitimate all-star level player at a premium position. Best of all, he’s been relatively healthy, another important skill.

For Swisher:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2004	23	OAK	AL	20	71	60	11	15	4	0	2	8	0	0	8	11	.250	.352	.417	.769	101	25	2	2	0	1	0	7/93D8
2005	24	OAK	AL	131	522	462	66	109	32	1	21	74	0	1	55	110	.236	.322	.446	.768	102	206	9	4	0	1	3	*93	RoY-6
2006	25	OAK	AL	157	672	556	106	141	24	2	35	95	1	2	97	152	.254	.372	.493	.864	125	274	13	11	2	6	7	37/D89
2007	26	OAK	AL	150	659	539	84	141	36	1	22	78	3	2	100	131	.262	.381	.455	.836	126	245	13	10	1	9	12	893/D
2008	27	CHW	AL	153	588	497	86	109	21	1	24	69	3	3	82	135	.219	.332	.410	.743	93	204	14	4	1	4	6	3879/D
2009	28	NYY	AL	150	607	498	84	124	35	1	29	82	0	0	97	126	.249	.371	.498	.869	122	248	13	3	3	6	2	*93/7D1
2010	29	NYY	AL	150	635	566	91	163	33	3	29	89	1	2	58	139	.288	.359	.511	.870	129	289	13	6	3	2	0	*9D/38	AS
2011	30	NYY	AL	150	635	526	81	137	30	0	23	85	2	2	95	125	.260	.374	.449	.822	120	236	18	5	1	8	6	*93/D
2012	31	NYY	AL	148	624	537	75	146	36	0	24	93	2	3	77	141	.272	.364	.473	.837	126	254	9	4	1	5	2	*93D
9 Yrs				1209	5013	4241	684	1085	251	9	209	673	12	15	669	1070	.256	.361	.467	.828	118	1981	104	49	12	42	38
162 Game Avg.				162	672	568	92	145	34	1	28	90	2	2	90	143	.256	.361	.467	.828	118	265	14	7	2	6	5
NYY (4 yrs)				598	2501	2127	331	570	134	4	105	349	5	7	327	531	.268	.367	.483	.850	124	1027	53	18	8	21	10
OAK (4 yrs)				458	1924	1617	267	406	96	4	80	255	4	5	260	404	.251	.361	.464	.825	118	750	37	27	3	17	22
CHW (1 yr)				153	588	497	86	109	21	1	24	69	3	3	82	135	.219	.332	.410	.743	93	204	14	4	1	4	6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/12/2013.

and

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	Rbat	Rbaser	Rdp	Rfield	Rpos	RAA	WAA	Rrep	RAR	WAR	waaWL%	162WL%	oWAR	dWAR	oRAR	Salary	Pos	Awards
2004	23	OAK	AL	20	71	1	-1	-0	-5	-1	-7	-0.6	2	-4	-0.4	.468	.496	0.1	-0.6	0		7/93D8
2005	24	OAK	AL	131	522	-1	1	-0	4	-7	-3	-0.2	18	15	1.4	.498	.498	1.0	-0.2	11	$316,500	*93	RoY-6
2006	25	OAK	AL	157	672	22	-2	-0	0	-10	10	1.1	23	33	3.2	.506	.506	3.2	-0.8	33	$335,000	37/D89
2007	26	OAK	AL	150	659	20	3	-0	2	-5	19	2.1	22	41	4.1	.513	.512	3.9	-0.2	39	$400,000	893/D
2008	27	CHW	AL	153	588	-7	-0	-2	-11	-5	-25	-2.3	20	-5	-0.5	.483	.484	0.5	-1.4	6	$3,600,000	3879/D
2009	28	NYY	AL	150	607	15	-1	-1	-8	-7	-3	-0.1	20	17	1.7	.498	.498	2.5	-1.5	25	$5,400,000	*93/7D1
2010	29	NYY	AL	150	635	24	-3	-1	-1	-8	11	1.4	22	33	3.4	.508	.507	3.5	-0.8	34	$6,850,000	*9D/38	AS
2011	30	NYY	AL	150	635	13	-2	-2	-6	-8	-5	-0.4	22	16	1.5	.496	.497	2.2	-1.4	22	$9,100,000	*93/D
2012	31	NYY	AL	148	624	18	-1	1	5	-9	14	1.6	21	35	3.5	.510	.509	3.1	-0.4	30	$10,250,000	*93D
9 Seasons				1209	5013	105	-6	-7	-20	-60	11	2.6	170	181	17.9	.501	.501	20.0	-7.1	201	$36,251,500
NYY (4 yrs)				598	2501	70	-7	-4	-10	-32	17	2.5	85	102	10.1	.503	.503	11.3	-4.0	112	$31,600,000
OAK (4 yrs)				458	1924	42	1	-2	1	-23	19	2.4	65	85	8.3	.504	.503	8.2	-1.7	84	$1,051,500
CHW (1 yr)				153	588	-7	-0	-2	-11	-5	-25	-2.3	20	-5	-0.5	.483	.484	0.5	-1.4	6	$3,600,000

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/12/2013.

Swisher, on the other hand, is rock solid. He provides OBP and power; he’s essentially replacing Choo and has a similar skill set (although Choo is better defensively). His contract is a bit over market value, as he’s not a superstar, but for Cleveland there’s an intangible PR advantage of an Ohio guy wanting to play here. Again, he’s durable, having played more than 140 games in every year of his career except his rookie year, and topping 150 in every year but his rookie year and (somewhat ominously) last year, although he was only two games off.

If Swisher’s power from 2010 comes back, he could be a borderline All-Star candidate, but all he has to do is replace Choo; if he does that, we got Trevor Bauer et. al. for essentially nothing.

Bourn, therefore, is a high risk, high reward type who will provide durability, speed, good fielding, and reasonable to great offense. Swisher probably won’t surprise, but he won’t disappoint either, and again, he’s durable. These are very good moves, in my estimation. The Indians have gotten better in pitching, and with even a dead cat bounce in regression they have to get better. Will the Indians make the playoffs year, though?

I have to say no right now. The Indians still lack a superstar (unless Bourn repeats 2012). The best Indians (Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jason Kipnis) are 3-4 win players. Great regulars, but not fantastic (Cabrera was in 2011, and if Santana could stay healthy over a season, he could be). Chisenhall has potential but remains an unknown. The problem, as Rob Neyer puts it so eloquently, is the terrible draft record of the Indians. Very, very few superstars are not homegrown. Homegrown doesn’t necessarily mean drafted — it could mean traded for, ala Sizemore and Cliff Lee. But, for whatever reason, the Indians don’t have one. Now, Kipnis and Chisenhall could be superstars; it’s hard to tell as of now. In order for the Indians to make the playoffs, all of the offensive talent has to be at least career average, with improvement from Kipnis and a full season of Chisenhall. That’s doable. The pitching staff needs to take a quantum leap forward, though, and I don’t know if that’s possible with these pitchers. It could be, but I doubt it.

One thing is certain though: they’re going to be much, much better.