The Penguatroll’s return!

I finished my last exam today. I haven’t submitted it yet — since it isn’t due until tomorrow, I’ll take a look at it then, make any appropriate edits and then send it in. Since I am largely done, however, I am announcing my return to the blog! I’ll have some reviews for everyone in the coming days for Force Unleashed (1), Dead Space, Dead Rising 2, and Smackdown vs RAW 2011.

I discovered The Office (US) while on my hiatus and am absolutely hooked. I always liked Steve Carrell on the Daily Show, but he’s brilliant as the oblivious boss who thinks he’s cool but he isn’t. Good stuff.

Buffalo’s Defense Sucks In Two Dimensions

The Bills have started incorporating a “heavy 4-3″ front with 3 defensive tackles and a 3-4 end on the line.  This is to help deal with their porous run defense.  Naturally, given how bad their pass defense has been, it probably can’t hurt all that much (more) there…

I compare this to the Four Aces rotation that the Giants had back in 2007 and weep.  The Giants had 4 defensive ends, meaning four guys who could penetrate the line, including a couple of guys who weren’t slouches defending against the run.  Buffalo, meanwhile, needs four heavy guys on the line, at least two of whom struggle to get to the quarterback, just to keep their run defense from looking absolutely pathetic.  Instead, it just looks normally pathetic.

Efficient Markets

xkcd, via Alex Tabarrok.

It’s a fair point in general.  But take it in the other direction as well:  take a wacky theory that you believe in, and try to monetize its implications.  If you are capable of doing this, you get to update the priors of everybody who thought it was impossible while making a big bundle of cash.  Of course, if you fail, you then have to update your own priors, as well as those who were not convinced either way.

Roy, in the comments (skip through most of the off-topic discussion and politics…), notes that things like dousing were used Back In The Day, and to the extent that this worked, it was because surface features could tell you a fair bit about underground features (like water or oil reservoirs).  So it’s also possible to use a wacky theory accidentally to approximate reality.  So you’ve got that going for you if you believe in something crazy.

Harry Reid: “I’ll Lose This Thing Yet!”

Patty Murray is one of the dumbest members of Congress.  I don’t mean this in a polemical sense—at one point, as I recall, Murray was voted (by Senators) in an informal poll as the dumbest Senator.  I think she should be happy that Harry Reid is trying his very best to take on that mantle, at least until November.  Fortunately, there’s a good chance that Reid will lose and a more outside chance that Murray will lose, so maybe both of them will be released from that burden very soon.