Manzi On Global Warming

Jim Manzi has an article on Cato Unbound (which is a great way to get smart people writing about interesting topics) regarding global warming.  I liked his article (you should also read Joseph Romm’s reaction essay), but I would say that he was quite charitable with the climate modeling industry in general.  He notes the IPCC estimates, but the problem with such estimates has been that they do a terrible job of predicting the past given data outside of the set upon which the modeling was performed, so using them to predict the future is folly.  And given that the global temperature trend over the past decade has stabilized and even declined in the last couple of years (including a substantial increase in the Arctic ice sheet from 2006 to 2007, which hurts one of Romm’s points) with an increase in industrial output but a decline in solar activity, I get the suspicious feeling that in a decade or two, an enterprising Julian Simon type will add global warming to the list of catastrophes which never occurred, with plenty of charts about how the world should have been destroyed by then.