There is a new Gallup poll out and, as Peter Schramm points out, it indicates that a fair number of Democrats are willing to vote for John McCain if their preferred candidate happens to lose, with about 20% of Obama supporters actively willing to undermine Clinton and nearly 30% of Clinton supporters who would do the same to Obama.
For Republicans, given that they’re still in the big mess that they found themselves in during 2006, that’s wonderful news, as it indicates that McCain can win. I would, however, caution any early celebration for McCain fans. There are two reasons to discount this survey somewhat. The first reason is that it is still so far away from the general election and a lot of those Democrats will likely change their minds and vote for the Democrat regardless of who is running. Furthermore, it’s possible that the more partisan Democrats are using this as a way of engaging in cheap talk.
Cheap talk is an important part of game theory and basically boils down to the fact that humans bluff and bluster, sometimes quite a bit. If I were an Obama supporter, I may say that I would never, under any circumstances, vote for Clinton in an attempt to give Obama a bit of additional support, where he can say, “Look at all of these people I bring to the table. Therefore, I should be the Democratic nominee.” Clinton supporters can, and likely do, follow suit. In reality, though, if a Clinton supporter sees Obama (D) and McCain (R) on the ballot, they’ll still vote for the D because although he isn’t Clinton, Obama is still a Democrat and is closer to the beliefs of the average Democrat than Clinton.
Due to the prevalence of cheap talk and strategic behavior (such as Republicans voting for Clinton over Obama or vice versa or Democrats voting for McCain), I would be very wary of such a poll, especially this far out from an election. It would be interesting to see, however, the same question asked in October, after we know which candidate will run for the Democrats and right around election time. At that point, I would expect those numbers to be much lower.
